COVID-19 CASE-FATALITY and CASES in INDIA
(14th April 2020)
NON-SCIENTIFIC PROJECTIONS (OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO)
COVID-19 mortality is frequently quoted as less than 5 percent. This rate is based on cumulative deaths and cumulative cases. However, a large number of cases remain active and their survival is not known. All cases finally recover or die. As of 13th April 2020, 1193 have recovered in India and 361 have died. Others are still active. Thus, nearly one in 4 has died and 3 recovered, giving a case-fatality of nearly 25 percent. This is much higher than 3 or 4 percent currently believed. Initial data indicated that one out 6 died and 5 recovered but the case-fatality increased as the epidemic progressed in our country. The case-fatality is stable between 20 and 25 percent for the past few weeks but may decline in course of time. Deaths in China and some other countries are low but this may not happen in India due to limited infrastructure and late detection. Kerala could be a lesson for all of us where more than 200 have recovered and there are only 2 deaths so far.
Now that we have data for the past several weeks, it is possible to study the trend and make a projection. The present trend indicates that the cumulative count of deaths by the end of this month could be 1500 and recoveries 4400.
The data indicate that the 5-day multiplier for cases initially was 2.5, which gradually settled down to 2.0 by the end of March 2020 due to a series of measures such as social distancing and hand washing. Unfortunately, it rose back to 2.5 in the first week of April as a large number of cases related to Tablighi episode appeared. However, the lockdown paid dividend and the multiplier came down to 1.8 by the end of the second week of April. This may come down further to 1.5 – even lower – by the end of the month. The new cases, which were appearing at the rate of 15 percent at one time, came down to 9 percent day-on-day basis. This percentage looks small but the rise in the actual number of cases is enormous.
Under this favourable scenario, the cumulative cases could be frightening 40,000 by the end of April 2020. Luckily, nearly 80 percent of them would be mild but the remaining 8,000 may require hospitalization for a minimum of 10 days each. This number may increase if an incident like Tablighi, and now Bandra, occurs.
Although scientists say that there is no evidence of the impact of hot weather on COVID spread, but some of us expect a decline in cases as the temperature soars to 40 degrees in most parts of the country. The virus may survive this heat but let us see if it thrives in that temperature.
~A. Indrayan
MSc,MS,PD(OhioState),FAMS,FSMS,FRSS,FASc
(14th April 2020)
NON-SCIENTIFIC PROJECTIONS (OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO)
COVID-19 mortality is frequently quoted as less than 5 percent. This rate is based on cumulative deaths and cumulative cases. However, a large number of cases remain active and their survival is not known. All cases finally recover or die. As of 13th April 2020, 1193 have recovered in India and 361 have died. Others are still active. Thus, nearly one in 4 has died and 3 recovered, giving a case-fatality of nearly 25 percent. This is much higher than 3 or 4 percent currently believed. Initial data indicated that one out 6 died and 5 recovered but the case-fatality increased as the epidemic progressed in our country. The case-fatality is stable between 20 and 25 percent for the past few weeks but may decline in course of time. Deaths in China and some other countries are low but this may not happen in India due to limited infrastructure and late detection. Kerala could be a lesson for all of us where more than 200 have recovered and there are only 2 deaths so far.
Now that we have data for the past several weeks, it is possible to study the trend and make a projection. The present trend indicates that the cumulative count of deaths by the end of this month could be 1500 and recoveries 4400.
The data indicate that the 5-day multiplier for cases initially was 2.5, which gradually settled down to 2.0 by the end of March 2020 due to a series of measures such as social distancing and hand washing. Unfortunately, it rose back to 2.5 in the first week of April as a large number of cases related to Tablighi episode appeared. However, the lockdown paid dividend and the multiplier came down to 1.8 by the end of the second week of April. This may come down further to 1.5 – even lower – by the end of the month. The new cases, which were appearing at the rate of 15 percent at one time, came down to 9 percent day-on-day basis. This percentage looks small but the rise in the actual number of cases is enormous.
Under this favourable scenario, the cumulative cases could be frightening 40,000 by the end of April 2020. Luckily, nearly 80 percent of them would be mild but the remaining 8,000 may require hospitalization for a minimum of 10 days each. This number may increase if an incident like Tablighi, and now Bandra, occurs.
Although scientists say that there is no evidence of the impact of hot weather on COVID spread, but some of us expect a decline in cases as the temperature soars to 40 degrees in most parts of the country. The virus may survive this heat but let us see if it thrives in that temperature.
~A. Indrayan
MSc,MS,PD(OhioState),FAMS,FSMS,FRSS,FASc
